⚾ Baseball predictions September 22 – 24

Strategies
1 year ago

New York Yankees versus Toronto Blue Jays

In this American League East battle, the Yankees are trying to secure a spot in the post season and an outside shot at the division, while the Blue Jays look to play spoiler. Examining the two teams, the Yankees hold the edge +4 to -3.32 in terms of the MLB Team Strength Oscillator. Similarly, the Yankees have a +21 to +14 advantage in the Power Ranking Indicator. Neither team cracks the top ten in Team Volatility, making the favorite/underdog status less important in predicting the outcome of this series.

Pitching match ups:

Friday, September 22: Luis Severino versus Marco Estrada

Severino enters the game with a record of 13-6, a 2.93 ERA and 218 strikeouts. He’s 7-2 over the last ten games, but has been a poor bet, coming in at -547 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. Estrada is coming in at 9-8 with a 4.74 ERA. he’s allowed 29 home runs in 176 2/3 innings, but has won his last four decisions. He’s also been a very good bet, at +482 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. While Severino has been the worse bet, his numbers on the on the rise, he’s the better overall pitcher and the Yankees are the better team. I go with the Yankees in this one.

Saturday, September 23: Jordan Montgomery versus Joe Biagini

This match up is weighing heavily in the Yankees favor. Montgomery is 8-7 with a 4.06 ERA and only 1-2 over the last eight starts. However, he’s been a solid bet lately, rising in the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. Biagini is 0-3 over the last eight starts and is 3-11 with a high 5.50 ERA this season. A bad bet overall, his profit number is at -700 and declining. I see the Yankees taking the middle game of the series.

Sunday, September 24: Sonny Gray versus Marcus Stroman

Neither pitcher has been a good bet with Gray at a horrendous -1552 and declining, while Stroman is -656 and also declining. Overall, both have been solid pitchers, likely losing when favored to win. Gray is 9-11 with a 3.38 ERA and has allowed only 129 hits in 151 2/3 innings. Stroman has a very solid 3.01 ERA with a 12-8 record. Look for the Blue Jays to take the series finale in a close game to avoid a sweep.

St. Louis Cardinals versus Pittsburgh Pirates

In this series, the Cardinals are looking to finish strong to try and claim a wild card spot, while the Pirates seek to avoid the basement in the division. According to the Power Ranking Indicator, the Cardinals hold a healthy +17 to +5 advantage. The MLB Team Strength Oscillator gives the Cardinals a wider advantage, at +2.43 and declining slightly to -11.27 and falling off the cliff for the Pirates. In Team Volatility, the Cardinals rank ninth, meaning the generally win as a favorite and lose as an underdog.

Pitching match ups:

Friday, September 22: Michael Wacha versus Chad Kuhl

Wacha is four games over .500 at 12-8 with a 4.02 ERA. He’s won three of his last four and on a slightly upward trend at +355 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. Kuhl is 7-11 with a 4.31 ERA and 1-3 over the last four decisions. Generally a good bet, Kuhl is at +67 in terms of profit but in on a downward trend. The Cardinals have a clear edge in this game and are my pick in the opener.

Saturday, September 23: Lance Lynn versus Ivan Nova

Lynn enters with a 11-7 record with a fine ERA of 3.09. He’s allowed only 142 hits in 184 2/3 innings. In a bit of a surprise, he’s been a poor bet at -212 and declining in terms of profit. Nova has struggled lately, losing his last four and is 11-11 on the season. He’s allowed a staggering 29 home runs, but in term of the Pitcher Profit Oscillator is a good bet at +380. The Cardinals will likely be the favorites, and going against the profit numbers, I see the Cardinals continuing their trend as solid favorites and winning this one.

Sunday, September 24: Jack Flaherty versus Gerrit Cole

In a very small sample size, Flaherty has been poor, with a 0-1 record and 6.08 ERA in 13 1/3 innings. Cole is 11-11 with a mediocre 4.13 ERA and has allowed 30 home runs. However, he’s been a good bet overall at +503 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. Give the experience edge to Cole and the Pirates will likely be playing to avoid a sweep. I see the Pirates edging the Cardinals in the finale.

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