⚾ MLB Predictions: May 11 – 13

Strategies
7 months ago

With the MLB season 20 percent over, the jockeying for position in the standings begins. Check out what’s in store for the weekend of May 11-13.

Note that any standings, statistics or information from the oscillators is for games played through May 8.

Oakland A’s versus New York Yankees

The A’s are fourth in the AL West, while the Yankees have won seven straight and are tied with Boston in the AL East. Oakland is at +19 on the Power Ranking Indicator and “burning hot” on the Team Strength Oscillator, while the Yankees are +29 and also “burning hot”. New York is also third in Team Volatility making them even a more attractive bet being home favorites this weekend. In Friday’s pitching match up, Trevor Cahill for the A’s and Sonny Gray for the Yankees have both been poor bets, well in the red on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. On Saturday, Domingo German is +72 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator, albeit a small sample size, compared to -339 for Andrew Triggs. Neither Brett Anderson (-559) nor Luis Severino (-339) have been good bets, although the edge goes to the Yankees. Look for the Yankees to remain hot, taking two and perhaps sweeping the series.

New York Mets versus Philadelphia Phillies

Four teams are within 2 1/2 games of each other in the NL East. In this divisional rivalry, the Phillies hold a +16 to +12 edge on the Power Ranking Indicator. Both teams have scuffled lately. The Phillies are 4-6 over the last ten and “ice cold down” on the Team Strength Oscillator, while the Mets are 2-8 over the last ten and “dead” status. The Phillies have a huge advantage on Friday with Jake Arrieta going against Steven Matz. Arrieta is +1004 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator versus -849 for Matz. In Saturday’s match up, Noah Syndergaard is barely in the green in terms of profit, while Zach Eflin is slightly in the red. Jacob DeGrom has been a very good bet at +732, while Aaron Nola is at -198. However, Nola has been excellent, one of the top pitchers in the NL at the moment. The series is tough to predict, neither team will be swept. I am leaning towards two to one for the Phillies.

Washington Nationals versus Arizona Diamondbacks

Washington is 9-1 over the last ten and is pushing the Braves and Phillies for tops in the NL East. They are “burning hot” and +17 on the Power Ranking Indicator. The Diamondbacks are +26 on the Power Ranking Indicator, but are just 4-6 over the last ten and “average” on the Team Strength Oscillator. Friday’s pitching match up is one of the best you’ll see. Max Scherzer for the Nationals versus Zack Greinke for the Diamondbacks. Both have been enormously profitable on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator (+2603 for Scherzer and +2665 for Greinke). Perhaps somewhat of a surprise, in Saturday’s match up Matt Koch for Arizona is in the green, while Stephen Strasburg is in the red. Sunday’s game swings decidedly in Arizona’s favor, as Zach Godley (+1141 on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator) is a much better bet than Jeremy Hellickson (-949). The Diamondbacks will win two of three at home, maintaining their cushion in the NL West.

Texas Rangers versus Houston Astros

The Rangers are looking up at the Astros from the basement of the NL West. Neither team has been great lately, as Houston is just 5-5 over their last ten and +18 on the Power Ranking Indicator. Texas is 3-7 over the last ten and is “ice cold down” on the Team Strength Oscillator and +3 on the Power Ranking Indicator. Friday’s game appears to be the best shot for Texas to win a game this weekend. Cole Hamels has been a very nice bet at +996 versus Charlie Morton at -168. On Saturday, Doug Fister goes for the Rangers versus Justin Verlander. Although Verlander has been a poor bet, he’s 4-1 with a 1.17 ERA for the season. In the series finale, Matt Moore is deep in the red on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator at -855, while Dallas Keuchel has been a very good bet at +844. All told, the Astros will win two to extend their lead in the division.

Seattle Mariners versus Detroit Tigers

The Tigers are five games below .500 in the mediocre at best AL Central, while the Mariners are battling the Astros and Angels for the top of the AL West. Seattle has a large +21 to +4 advantage on the Power Ranking Indicator. They have been playing better than Detroit lately with an “average up” status versus “average down”. All three Seattle starters this weekend are in the green on the Pitcher Profit Oscillator. Marco Gonzales goes for the Mariners on Friday and the starter for the Tigers hasn’t been decided. Felix Hernandez is at +261 for Seattle on Saturday versus Matthew Boyd, who has been a poor bet at -534. Detroit does have an advantage on Sunday, which could be their chance to salvage a game in the series. Michael Fulmer has been very profitable at +935, while James Paxton has been a mediocre bet at +103. Seattle will take two of three to keep pace in their division.

Milwaukee Brewers versus Colorado Rockies

The teams have identical records and both in second place in their divisions. Milwaukee has a +25 to +19 edge on the Power Ranking Indicator, however both teams are “burning hot” on the Team Strength Oscillator. In terms of the Pitcher Profit Oscillator, the Rockies have the clear edge on Friday with Chad Betts (+1574) versus Chase Anderson (-467). Kyle Freeland goes for the Rockies on Saturday and he has also been a solid bet at +587. The Brewers are undecided at this time for their starter on Saturday. The series finale features two pitchers both in the red in terms of profit. Wade Miley for the Brewers is -1037, while Jon Gray is at -468. The Rockies are 15-8 at home and should be able to win two of three in this series.

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