Baseball predictions for September 8 – 10
New York Yankees versus Texas Rangers
The Yankees are second in the American League East, while the Rangers are third in the American League West. Looking at the overall trend and current power of the two teams, I see the Yankees hold a big +25 to +14 edge in the Power Ranking Indicator, while the Rangers hold a slim +4.28 to +2.34 advantage in terms of the MLB Strength Oscillator. Neither team is in the top ten in Team Volatility, so I am putting little value into favorite and underdog status in this series.
Pitching match ups:
Friday September 8, Masahiro Tanaka versus A.J. Griffin
Tanaka is 11-10 with a 4.54 ERA, but is hot lately, going 3-0 in the last four starts. Always a good bet, Tanaka is at +1426 and climbing according to the MLB Profit Oscillator. Griffin is 6-5 with a 5.09 ERA, but only 2-5 over the last seven decisions. He’s been a surprisingly excellent bet at +2557 on the Profit Oscillator but has been declining recently. Although Griffin has a wide margin in profit, I am going with the trend, which is both upward for the Yankees and Tanaka and down for Griffin. I see the Yankees winning game one.
Saturday September 9, Luis Severino versus Martin Perez
Severino comes in pitching very well at 12-6 with a 3.03 ERA and 7-2 over his last nine decisions. He’s struck out 201 in just 169 2/3 innings, but surprisingly has been a poor bet at -632. However he’s on the incline, which is a trend worth paying attention to. Perez is 11-10 with a 4.87 ERA, but has been on a steep incline, going 6-0 over his last six starts. His profit number at -463 is also on the rise. I see the Rangers taking the middle game of this weekend series.
Sunday September 10, C.C Sabathia versus Andrew Cashner
Sabathia has turned his season around and is 11-5 with an ERA of 3.91. He’s 2-0 over his last four starts and is at +104 on the Profit Oscillator, up from -894 in spring training. Cashner is 9-9 wit a 3.29 ERA and is 2-2 over the last four starts. He’s been up and down according to the Profit Oscillator and is currently at -234. Sabathia is the most stable overall bet and the Yankees are the better team. I see the Yankees wining on Sunday and taking the series.
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Pittsburgh Pirates versus St. Louis Cardinals
In this National League Central division match up, the Cardinals are second in the division while the Pirates are third. The Cardinals hold the edge in terms of the Power Ranking Indicator at +16 to +14. The margin is wider in the MLB Strength Oscillator at +1.38 to -5.52, but worth noting that the Pirates are rising quickly. Neither team is in the top ten in Team Volatility, making the favorite and underdog status relatively unimportant.
Pitching match ups:
Friday September 8, Trevor Williams versus Luke Weaver
Williams enters the game 6-7 with a 4.14 ERA and 1-3 over the last four decisions. Still positive in terms of profit at +154, he’s down from a high of +628 earlier in the season. Weaver is 3-0 over the last three starts and 4-1 with a 2.50 ERA overall. He’s slightly negative in terms of profit at -60, however he’s been pitching very well and the Cardinals have the stronger overall team. I see the Cardinals winning this one.
Saturday September 9, Chad Kuhl versus Carlos Martinez
Kuhl has been inconsistent, as his 7-10 record with a 4.32 ERA indicates. He’s been a decent bet however, at +267 in terms of the Profit Oscillator. Martinez, on the other hand, has been an excellent bet at +1174 and is 4-1 over the last five decisions. He is prone to the long ball, allowing 24 home runs this season, but I feel confident that the Cardinals can pull out game two.
Sunday September 10, Ivan Nova versus Michael Wacha
In the series finale, Nova comes in at 11-12 with a 4.12 ERA and just 1-5 over the last six starts. Sill a good bet at +580, that number has been declining lately. Wacha enters the game at 11-7 with a 4.21 ERA and 2-3 over the last five. Also positive in terms of profit, Wacha is a bit lower than Nova at +394. In the relatively close match up, the motivating factor of avoiding a sweep comes into play. I give the Pirates a narrow win to avoid the weekend sweep.
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